PNG requires an effective energy strategy
09 May 2010
IT’S TIME THE government
came up with a sound national energy plan as PNG should not depend too much on
imported oil and its by-products.
PNG needs alternative energy solutions for when the world's crude oil reserves are depleted a century from now.
It’s important we not blindly follow other countries by relying too much on imported oil – which exposes us to a great strategic risk.
We should be planning for other viable, cost-effective energy sources. Creative entrepreneurs here already have some experience in using alternative fuels. The government must now take this a step further.
The plain truth is that oil, ‘black gold’, powers the world and makes almost everything move. Today’s world relies heavily on oil. Its petrochemical ingredients are made into thousands of other products used daily by people everywhere.
On the futures market, oil is an important energy commodity traded daily by millions of investors (and speculators, and hedgers). Crude oil is the most active futures contract traded as a physical commodity.
Petroleum futures markets were introduced in response to price volatility caused by the OPEC oil embargoes of the early 1970s. When crude oil is pumped to the surface, gas and water are removed, and graded for density and sulphur content, then transported to refineries.
The futures market actively trades in crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gasoline and natural gas. The most important products that result are vehicle fuel, heating oil, jet fuel (kerosene), diesel oil and propane.
With the demand for crude oil growing daily another potential problem is brewing. For some time now, oil production has barely kept up with demands and the prospoect of supplies being disrupted cannot be entirely ignored.
The demand for oil is forecast to increase by over 50 percent in the next 20 years. Despite steadily rising oil production in recent years, this can only spell disaster for the world, and PNG.
For PNG, it will become very much a survival of the fittest. The big kids on the block (industrialised nations) may have to fight it out while the rest of us will watch helplessly from the sidelines.
How does this affect PNG? A lot, even in the short to medium term. We cannot hope to do without oil.
But good planning can see PNG start reducing its need for imported oil-products. At the same time, we must increase our own oil production for domestic energy usage.
The oil we produce here need not be exported but refined onshore for domestic consumption at low cost to consumers. This strategic reserve is important for PNG so we need to save it for future contingencies in the event that global oil supplies are either disrupted or depleted.
Exporting our oil today will not make much difference to global oil supplies. When others are selling their oil to meet growing demand, PNG can be smart ountry by storing its oil and building its reserves.
The government and opposition need a bipartisan bill to implement a sustainable national energy plan.
The government also needs to create more partnerships with the private sector in natural gas, geothermal heat pump technology, solar, wind energy and other clean energy alternatives as part of our long-term energy solutions to enhance future supplies in PNG.
Finally, in as far as international trade and relations is concerned; PNG must actively develop and consolidate strong relationships with energy producing countries within our region.
The bottom line for PNG is plan to improve the future outlook for investment, trade and ensuring reliable supplies of energy products to our shores.
Here is an extract from one of my social mapping reports. Shooting down the concept of the "tribe" is one of the first things I do in such reports, it makes everything else make sense.
"The concept of the tribe is problematic. The term is widely used but there is no general consensus as to its precise definition or appropriate application (Seymour-Smith 1986:281). Tribal divisions were largely a creation of colonial times and represent an attempt to impose order and unity over previously disparate local communities. These communities, while sharing customs and language with their neighbours, generally failed to regard themselves as a larger, named group with political affiliations after the fashion of a tribe.
Where group names existed they tended to originate from outside the community. The group usually thought of itself in terms of "us" or "we". The group over the river or in the hills might be known by a specific name, usually of a conveniently descriptive kind but of which they are probably unaware.
The so-called Kukukuku, who raided the Papuan coast, for instance, were named after the cassowary bones that their married men with children wore about their waists but they never recognised the name, which came from the coastal Motu languages. This did not deter the colonial administrators from referring to them as the Kukukuku Tribe however.
Many tribal names had their origin in the direction in which people lived or in the language in which they spoke. The latter is one of the most useful ways of distinguishing between groups. Ohtsuka, when speaking of the people at Wonie village in the Oriomo River area where he carried out extensive fieldwork over many years says, for instance,said
"The language spoken by the subject people in Wonie is generally called Gidra, but the speakers of this language believe that Gidra was named by their coastal neighbours and they prefer the name Wipitungam, which originally implied ‘man’ in their language",to Gidra (1983:7).
There is a direct relationship between language, people, place, social identity and territorial organisation. Using language as a basis for differentiation between people has distinct advantages over the use of outdated, dubious and vague terms such as ‘tribe’.
The basic social organisation in most of PNG is the clan, or extended family. This is where loyalties lay - everyone else is an enemy.
Posted by: Phil Fitzpatrick | 10 May 2010 at 01:08 PM
I’ve always found human behaviour a fascinating topic. The reason is that there are so many diverse number of cultures and sub-cultures that, at first, it looks impossible to predict. However, as we are, after all, descended from common stock, there is an inevitable predictability that those who take the time to study history can discern.
Loyalty to the family group is usually taken as a given. This could be due to similar genes and imprinted culture. When families combine to become clans and then tribes, loyalty is still easily obtained although it usually takes the form of a passion for team colours and slogans. Today’s football team supporters may not realise their similar passion with those who supported Chariot Team and Gladiators over 2,000 years ago.
When tribes unite or are united into a civilisation, loyalty becomes harder to elicit. Emblems and slogans are then used to promote unity and personality cults emerge to help wannabe leaders assemble their supporters. Nations work hard at maintaining loyalty when there are no perceived threats. Many world leaders therefore either invent or take on external threats to promote national unity and hopefully, domestic production and consumption.
100 years ago, the British notionally controlled a vast empire that it claimed ‘the sun never set on’. Large areas on the globe were traditionally coloured pink to represent the Empire. Today, Britain is struggling to preserve its national identity at a time when there is an increasing battle between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’.
The preservation of national resources in the face of global conflict has become a serious dilemma. It could be argued that Japan 70 years ago, went to war to obtain the natural resources it needed to become a world power. Could it be any different with today’s emerging powers?
To try and predict what the world will be like in 100 years or even 50 years is therefore very difficult. Human societies are very much driven by demand and that is usually traced back to population growth. Today’s population growth is fast coming to the point where the world cannot support it.
Traditional ways of controlling population will therefore emerge. War, famine, disease, etc have never been eradicated. Yet, due to modern medicine and improved food production techniques, the world population continues to expand.
During the last 30 years, the world population has doubled and is due to double again in less than 30 years unless something drastic happens.
Many world leaders are driven by a need to constantly appeal to their voters by offering handouts paid for by taxation, often obtained from the same people who provided the taxes in the first place.
Domestic politics has become a scramble to outdo competitors with perceived giveaways. Two thousand years ago it was observed that the Roman people had descended into a regime of ‘bread and circuses’. Today’s financial empires could be summed up by short term gain followed by long term pain.
So maintaining national energy stocks and food reserves and defending them in the future may be desirable but is it achievable? The world’s population crisis is due to erupt well before 2050.
Wait a minute! Isn’t 2050 the date PM Somare has a plan for?
Posted by: Paul Oates | 10 May 2010 at 10:16 AM