WE HAVE ALL been here before, so we shouldn’t get too excited about it.

I refer, of course, to chatter of the impending political demise of Sir Michael Somare.

“There are increasing rumblings in PNG about moves to topple the prime minister,” said ABC Moresby correspondent, Liam Fox, on Monday.

But PNG Attitude has heard this a number of times in the last two years. And reported it. And been wrong.

It is true that government MPs are now free to take part in a vote of no confidence against Sir Michael. But this does not mean they will.

The political imperative is that, to a very considerable extent, politicians become expert sniffers of the breeze. They develop forecasting skills that are the envy of the Weather Bureau .

So when reports from Port Moresby say parties are crunching the numbers, weighing the chances of change, I do not disbelieve this is occurring.

But I am also cautious in suspecting it means a coup is imminent.

The Opposition says it is confident it can attract enough disaffected government MPs to win a vote.

Why? What is suddenly on offer from an Opposition that has shown little strategic skill. What is on offer that is so much better than what the government is offering now – or may offer in the future.

Parliament is due to sit later this month, but don’t hold your breath.

Michael Somare is 74 – and his health may not be the best (like many men of 74). But he’s never shown himself to be a quitter. Never.

I doubt he’s about to start now.