BY FRANCIS HUALUPMOMI, in China

WITH PRIME MINISTER Grand Chief Sir Michael Somare officially declared medically unfit to lead the National Alliance coalition until the next election, the question to be asked is who will supersede his leadership?

It is quite difficult to predict Sir Michael’s successor given the complexity of the National Alliance make-up, however from observation we can construct some scenarios.

Over the years the current NA government has had several leadership contests based on regional politics.

The key leadership tussle has been between the Highlands’ regional camp and the Momase camp, whilst the Southern and the Nuigini Islands camps seem moderate.

From this constellation, we can assume a pattern that the Highlands and Momase camps will compete for leadership.

We expect three political factions within Highlands regional bloc - the O’Neill group and a split in Enga between acting PM Sam Abal’s group and former deputy PM leader and Highlands’ hot candidate, Don Polye’s group.

Given the Highlands complex political culture, we expect that a split in the Engan group would most likely shift alliance to Southern Highlands group. In the Southern Highlands, the hottest candidate will be Peter O’Neill. However, should Engan MPs unite, we expect a different scenario. Polye would be more likely to assume leadership than Abal.

On the other side of the coin, the Momase camp may face similar political competition. We expect a split between Patrick Pruaitch and Arthur Somare. Although both leaders are highly competitive, Arthur may assume leadership for three reasons.

First, he will be preferred over Pruaitch to maintain the rand Chief’s legacy. Second, he has played an important role in economic development by bringing onshore many high impact projects such as LNG. Finally, his leadership may attract NA support in honour and recognition of Sir Michael Somare.

In the middle camp, we have the Niugini Islands and Southern (Papua), both of which do not possess potential candidates for the leadership.

In the Niugini Islands, we expect Paul Tiensten to bandwagon with the Momase camp. In the South, there is a vacuum after the defection of former deputy prime minister, Sir Puka Temu, to the Opposition.

Given this situation, we expect two possible scenarios. First, both camps may remain faithful with Momase in fear of losing the leadership to the Highlands region. Secondly, there will be a split within the camps between pro-Somare and pro-Pruaitch factions.

Although there is the possibility of defections of MPs from the coastal bloc to the highlands bloc, this is less likely to occur.

From this analysis, we can draw some conclusions.

First, political instability within NA coalition is inevitable.

Secondly, we expect some leadership shift in the Highlands camp with new faces should there be a stalemate in leadership between Enga and Southern Highlands.

Thirdly, we expect a split in the Momase camp. However, it is most likely that Arthur Somare will assume leadership.

Fourth, we also a split between Niugini Islands and Southern camps; however, it is most likely that both will support Momase.

This leaves us with four most likely possible candidates.

Arthur Somare, Sam Abal, Don Polye and Peter O’Neill.

In projecting a rough prediction, we expect Arthur Somare to reign should there be a stalemate between Highlands MPs. However, should the Highlands regional MPs unite, we expect Don Polye to assume leadership.