KEITH JACKSON

THERE ARE 111 SEATS to be filled in the next Papua New Guinea parliament and less than one-quarter (27) have been declared so far. But the shape of the power structure is beginning to emerge.

The superior organisation of Peter O’Neill’s People’s National Congress is seen in its strong performance across the nation and, given that the current trend continues, it could end up with one-third of the seats in the new parliament.

That’s not a bad base for beginning to assemble a coalition government even though some of the other contenders (read Polye, Namah and Somare) will not be all that keen about being support players

On the numbers so far, and given that the counting continues along present lines, you would think that O’Neill will form a government.

But I have a sneaking suspicion that, given that he wins his seat (which now seems likely), Namah will spring a surprise or two.

He'll seek to recruit both from the pretty large group of Independents and use his great powers of persuasion to test the loyalties of some of the newly elected members who at first glance appear ‘bound’ by other parties.

By the way, so far 11 sitting members in the 27 seats declared have been tossed out by voters - that's 40% and indicates a very much 'new look' parliament on the backbenches. The top power structure in PNG remains, however. Experienced - but divided.

Anyway, let’s look at what’s been happening in some of the more interesting seats not yet declared.

Lae Open

Long time sitting member Bart Philemon (New Generation Party) has fallen into third place 150 votes behind Independent Fred Wak. But in this seat the voting is very close, with five candidates within 1,000 votes of each other and lots of preferences to spread around. The leading woman candidate, Loujaya Toni (Indigenous Peoples Party) is running fifth but, depending upon preferences, still in with a chance.

Sohe Open

Dellilah Gore (Triumph Heritage Empowerment Party) has been the frontrunner throughout in this very closely fought seat. She’s about 600 votes ahead of her nearest rival in a contest in which any one of ten candidates could win.

Sinasina-Yongomugl Open

The first results are coming in from Simbu, where counting is at a very early stage. Down in the Sinasina, troubled parliamentary Speaker Jeffrey Nape (Rural Development Party), recently charged with ‘undue influence and bribery’, is running third, but it seems the ballot boxes from his strongholds haven’t been opened yet.

Vanimo-Green River Open

Deputy prime minister Belden Namah (PNG Party) was trailing two Independents for much of the count but seems to have a firm grip on the winner’s podium now, being 2,500 votes ahead of the second-placed candidate. There will be a lot of preferences to count but Belden’s back. PNG Greens Dorothy Tekwie was never in the hunt

East Sepik Provincial

It’s all over bar the shouting in Sir Michael Somare’s seat. The Grand Chief is back with a vengeance and doesn’t need a lot of preferences to get over the line. With over 84,000 votes, Somare (National Alliance) is well ahead of the second placed Allan Bird (Pangu) with about 44,000.

Sumkar Open

Fascinating contest between the outspoken MP Ken Fairweather (People’s National Congress) and the outspoken former Defence Force commander, Brig Gen (ret) Jerry Singirok (Pangu). Singorok trails by 2,000 votes but there are lots and lots of preferences.

National Capital District Provincial

Governor Powes Parkop (Social Democratic Party) has a huge 6,000 vote lead on current runner up Wari Vele (People’s National Congress) in a large field. But, as is the case in so many seats, the vote has spread itself across lots of hopefuls and preferences will decide the outcome. My view is that Powes would have to seized by aliens to lose.

Northern Provincial

One candidate who would truly grace the national parliament is former top civil servant Garry Juffa (People's Movement for Change) who has slightly extended his lead in this close fought seat. With 6,400 votes, Juffa is 1,300 ahead of Allen Mesa (PNG Country Party) in a large field of candidates, many of whom have recorded substantial numbers of votes.