So was this expected? Short answer is, yes.

Behind the scenes, I have been tracking the likes of Sam Basil, William Duma, Charles Abel, Sir Puka Temu, Sir Julius Chan, Paias Wingti, and Chris Haiveta, expecting them to make a play for a change of prime minister.

I was very much aware that Basil was in secret talks with O’Neill and Namah, who were so desperate to change government they would mislead Basil into crossing the floor.

Basil believes he will be the next prime minister, so does Sir Julius Chan and O’Neill.

I brought this issue to the attention of prime minister Marape on numerous occasions so he would be informed on the what was going on behind the scenes.

However, he wanted to believe that both Basil and Duma would stay loyal to the government because he afforded their parties’ every request.

What is the play?

Right now, I still don’t believe there will be a vote of no confidence. More importantly, the motion for a vote can’t be moved for another four weeks.

Eighteen days from now – on Tuesday 1 December – parliament reconvenes. The Opposition will submit its notice of a no confidence vote against prime minister Marape to the Speaker.

The notice must be signed by no less than 12 members and name the next prime minister (which is not yet finally decided).

On Wednesday 2 December at 1pm, the Speaker and Permanent Parliament Committee will meet to table the notice and confirm it is in order, meeting the constitutional requirements of no less than 12 members signatories and naming the next PM.

Provided the notice is in order, the Speaker will direct the clerk of parliament to list the notice on the Parliament Notice Paper.

The next day, Thursday 3 December, parliament will reconvene. The Speaker will announce that he received the notice of the no confidence vote from the opposition and adjourn parliament for seven days.

On Thursday 10 December, Parliament will reconvene to deal with the motion of no confidence.

So, folks, that’s almost one month away and right now Basil, O’Neill and Namah have only 59 members, which they have to keep intact until the day of the vote.

In the meantime, the Marape government needs only to wait around for five members to realise they were badly misled, and that it wasn’t such a great idea to cross the floor. The public will also weigh in.

What is certain is that most, if not all, politicians will struggle to stay in camp for seven days, let alone one month.

It is also important to note that a sitting prime minister will always have the last say on whether a vote of confidence is moved on the day of the vote or not.

Right now, the government has the luxury of the full resources of the country and greater public support.

Support that will only build over time, because the people of Papua New Guinea are sick of corruption, self-interest and greed.