A comprehensive study of the 2017 elections found that there were at least 204 associated deaths and hundreds of people seriously injured or maimed.

The study by the Australian National University was based on reports from 258 independent election observers at 945 polling stations around PNG.

“The elections were marred by widespread fraud and malpractice, and extensive vote rigging,” said associate professor Nicole Haley, the lead author of the study.

Ivarature and Kabuni write that the 2022 election is shaping up to offer more of the same, despite the government purchasing armoured vehicles and introducing a new gun control law to try to reduce the estimated 50,000 illegal firearms in the country.

“Policing the elections has always been difficult and the support of the Australian Defence Forces is a welcome contribution to public safety,” they said.

“The PNG police force needs this support, it is chronically underfunded and severely lacking in manpower, with only one officer for every 1,145 people.”

This is the sixth worst ratio in the world.

Beyond violence, the writers say, the election is also likely to be marred by controversy because the government has not implemented crucial reforms recommended by the Commonwealth Observer Group and the Australian National University five years ago.

These were to update electoral laws, improve electoral procedures, clarify electoral boundaries and register voters.

“Missing just one of these stages affects the rest of the electoral process,” they say.

A key recommendation called on the government to release funds to the PNG Electoral Commission to register voters and update its electoral rolls.

“In 2017, thousands of eligible voters could not vote due to faulty electoral rolls,” Ivarature and Kabuni wrote. “Updating the roll only began in January 2022.

“In March, when the writs were about to be issued, one MP claimed possibly over 500,000 eligible voters were not listed. At the time of writing, it is not clear if the update has been completed.

“The lack of a national census has made effectively updating the roll even more difficult, with the most recent census postponed to 2024.

“Without this information, expect problems of ballot paper shortage or over-supply in many constituencies.

“This is critical in election management, particularly for the printing and distribution of ballot papers throughout the country,” they wrote.

They also point out that the government’s last-minute decision to create seven new electorates in mid-April is likely to compound this issue further.

The government made this decision after ballot papers were printed and tens of thousands of ballot papers had to be destroyed and new ones printed covering the seven new electorates and existing electorates where boundaries had been changed.

The boundary changes were made on the basis of the 2001 census which is considered inaccurate and unreliable, and the Opposition has asked the Supreme Court to declare the recent changes unconstitutional and invalid.

“If the Supreme Court determines it to be so, then the seven MPs from the new constituencies will automatically be disqualified from parliament,” write Ivarature and Kabuni.

“Moreover, a recent Supreme Court ruling disqualifying candidates with criminal offences after 2002 could create a backlog for the courts and slow the democratic process.”