The large chunk of rock is estimated to be 40-90 meters wide and it’s classified as a potential ‘city-killer’ due to its destructive capacity if it hits Earth. This could be equivalent to about eight megatons of TNT.

The current risk assessment shows that the odds of a collision have been steadily increasing.

The Americans (NASA) estimate a 1-in-38 chance of impact while the Europeans (ESA) calculate the odds at 1-41. Not a great difference really.

It’s worth noting, though, that 2024 YR4 has risen to the top of NASA's risk list. It’s currently about 59 million kilometers from Earth.

The asteroid will become unobservable in April 2024 as it passes behind the sun and it won’t come into view again until 2028.

As you might imagine, 2024 YR4 is the object of much research.

Scientists are working to determine its composition (stone vs iron-rich). This information will be crucial in determining its potential impact effects.

The James Webb Space Telescope will observe it in early March and worldwide space agencies are reviewing historical data for additional observations.

Scientists note that increasing probability doesn't necessarily mean impact is more likely.

According to Hugh Lewis of the University of Southampton, UK, more precise data collection could ultimately show the asteroid will miss Earth, though the probability could continue to rise before that determination is made.